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Opinion
Richard Heydarian
Richard Heydarian
How China became a major policy issue in Philippines’ midterm elections
- Domestic issues tend to top Philippine voters’ concerns, but recent events could make Ferdinand Marcos’ foreign policy a decisive factor
“[H]eads will roll,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr warned after mayor-turned-fugitive Alice Guo fled the country, evading authorities while facing an arrest warrant over multiple charges related to involvement with criminal syndicates.
Guo’s controversial case came to light following several high-profile hearings by the Philippine Senate which uncovered doubts over her nationality. Philippine law enforcement authorities had earlier linked her to a Chinese online casino, allegedly involved in torture, kidnapping and hacking of government websites.
Guo’s case provoked a national uproar and widespread concern over the potential infiltration of the country’s state institutions by syndicates and spies of Chinese origin. Last month, Marcos announced a blanket ban on Chinese online casinos, otherwise known as Philippine offshore gaming operators (Pogos), accusing them of a “grave abuse and disrespect to our system of laws”.
Pogos, he said, disguised themselves as legitimate entities but in reality ventured into “illicit areas furthest from gaming, such as financial scamming, money laundering, prostitution, human trafficking, kidnapping, brutal torture, even murder”.
Many Chinese citizens, seeking overseas work on false promises, have fallen victim to criminal syndicate groups operating online casinos in the Philippines.
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Indonesian authorities detained the sister and another known associate of Guo last week. However, the fugitive ex-mayor’s case has opened a Pandora’s box with major geopolitical ramifications. Ahead of the midterm elections, the Marcos administration and its allies are making China a central policy issue.
Aside from the law and order concerns, they are also seeking to reduce the Philippines’ economic dependence on China while taking a more assertive stance on South China Sea issues amid the festering disputes.
Marcos allies are bent on portraying the Duterte dynasty – which has positioned itself as a major opposition force and has historically enjoyed warm ties with Beijing – as nothing less than China’s proxy and, by extension, a threat to national security.
In the Philippines, as in other democracies, domestic issues consistently top voter’s priority lists. A survey released last month by Pulse Asia showed that 72 per cent of Filipinos said inflation was their biggest concern, followed by raising workers’ pay (44 per cent), reducing poverty (32 per cent), creating jobs (30 per cent) and fighting corruption in government (22 per cent).
The Philippines has been suffering from high inflation for the past two years, a particularly devastating state of affairs in a country where millions live close to the poverty line. This has resulted in a dip in Marcos’ approval and trust ratings, which are well below his predecessors’ at this phase in their presidencies.
The one area where Marcos enjoys widespread public support, including from his former critics in the liberal camp, is foreign policy. In the Pulse Asia survey, the Marcos administration enjoyed a net plus-30 per cent approval rating on “defending the integrity of Philippine territory against foreigners”.
In contrast to his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, known for his Beijing-friendly foreign policy, Marcos has adopted an uncompromising stance on the Philippines’ sovereign rights and claims. This is not an urgent concern for voters but could have a rallying effect if included in a package of compelling national concerns.
China-related themes have become central to Philippine national discourse. The Duterte administration oversaw the proliferation of Pogos, which precipitated a massive influx of mainland criminal syndicate groups into the country.
Accordingly, the Marcos administration is positioning itself as a restorer of law and order by banning Pogos and cracking down on Chinese criminal groups.
It is de-risking from China on multiple fronts. Manila has tightened visa restrictions on Chinese nationals, leading to a dramatic reduction in tourist arrivals from the mainland. Intelligence services, meanwhile, are tracking down Chinese journalists allegedly acting as spies, most notably Zhang “Steve” Song, the Manila bureau chief for the Wenhui Daily who is accused of infiltrating elite policy and business circles.
Philippine authorities are also confronting China-backed disinformation campaigns favouring the Dutertes and targeting top Filipino officials, including Marcos, ahead of the midterm elections in May 2025.
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Crucially, the Philippines is also seeking Western and Japanese investment, positioning itself as a “China-free” producer of critical minerals such as nickel, as well as a potential site for semiconductor production beyond neighbouring Taiwan.
In short, the Marcos administration is leveraging the Philippines’ position as a “frontline state” and a Western-friendly democracy to attract investment from China’s rivals.
Ultimately, the Marcos administration is portraying China as a clear and present danger to vital Philippine interests in the South China Sea, especially following multiple near-collisions between Chinese and Filipino maritime forces in recent months. Home to massive fisheries resources and untapped hydrocarbon reserves, the disputed area is essential to Philippine food and energy security.
Accordingly, Marcos allies are portraying the Dutertes, who have opposed closer security relations with the West, as unpatriotic. Duterte is facing congressional investigations over an alleged “gentleman’s agreement” with Beijing while he was president, while Vice-President Sara Duterte has been criticised for her silence on all major China-related issues.
By including the China issue in a larger package of interrelated economic and social concerns, Marcos and his allies are in a prime position to make foreign policy a major theme in the coming elections, like never before.
Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of “Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific”, and the forthcoming “Duterte’s Rise”
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