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Nicholas Spiro
Nicholas Spiro
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments.
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China’s trade surplus and deflationary policies propping up its push for hi-tech manufacturing mean a sharp US response is likely, whoever wins the November election.

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The yuan is under strain from internal and external pressures, making the balancing act that China’s monetary policymakers are trying to manage even trickier.

Political shocks during this year’s plethora of elections have roiled markets, but no source of political risk is greater than Donald Trump.

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Australia’s migration-fuelled population growth has been a driving force behind increasing demand in the property sector. However, while immigration is being blamed for the housing crisis, the problem is linked more to limited supply, planning laws and the tax system

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It is easy to be pessimistic about the world and the global economy, yet stock markets have hit record highs. Borrowing costs are coming down, growth is stronger than expected, tech stocks are thriving and investors are taking a glass-half-full approach.

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Beijing’s forceful measures to stem the crisis in the housing market have contributed significantly to the improvement in sentiment around Chinese stocks. The recovery remains vulnerable without meaningful improvement in confidence in the housing market, but investors have reason to hope.

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Despite lingering memories of the chaos and protectionism of Trump’s presidency, financial markets show little concern about him possibly returning to office. Investors who downplay the risks of Trump’s re-election ignore the threat he poses to democracy, the global trading system and the independence of the Federal Reserve.

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Prices in Singapore’s public housing system are under growing scrutiny as million-dollar sales make headlines and raise fears over affordability. Those sales are outliers, though, amid the government’s efforts to keep speculative demand to a minimum.

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Many investors believe the current rally in Chinese stocks is built on shaky foundations, but there are reasons to think this surge could last. Data beating expectations indicates a stabilising economy, markets seem convinced by Beijing’s policy moves and the rally not disconnected from domestic fundamentals.

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The prospect of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates and a ‘stronger for longer’ US dollar has hit Asian markets particularly hard, with Japan an extreme example. The only way the dollar will fall meaningfully is if the US economy slows sharply and the Fed cuts rates sooner and at a faster pace than markets expect.

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